Expected high rains a positive, but also risky

While expectations of above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country are likely to have positive impacts on the agriculture and water sectors, they also carry risks such as flooding and infrastructural damage.

The Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) has therefore called for a proactive approach to water management, emphasising the importance of regular monitoring of water bodies to mitigate the risks associated with flash floods and droughts.

According to the Namibia Seasonal Outlook for 2024/2025, produced by the NMS, the 2023/2024 rainfall season was characterised by a false onset and poorly distributed rainfall, with most of the country reporting below-average rainfall.

This was further aggravated by the fact that some regions, such as Erongo, Omusati and Kunene, were experiencing their fifth consecutive year of drought, while the ||Karas, Hardap, Khomas and parts of the Omaheke region were affected by a second year of drought.

“Extended dry spells within the rainy season led to crop failure necessitating drought relief in all regions of the country," the report states.

It notes that in the 2024/2025 rainfall season, the ||Karas and a bulk of the Hardap region have a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the October, November and December period.

“The remainder of the country, including the northeastern Hardap Region, have a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall.”

Put plans in place

The weather bureau said based on analysis by international forecasters, there will be a slow start to the season in October; however, increased rainfall is expected for the remainder of the period for the country.

The second part of the season from January to March is expected to have high chances of normal to above-normal rainfall for the entire country.

The NMS said it is crucial to update regional contingency plans to respond effectively to potential floods.

“Communities, especially farmers, are encouraged to harness the wet conditions through enhanced rainwater and floodwater harvesting, as well as efficient dam storage practices. In anticipation of water scarcity, southern regions should prioritise water conservation and manage water demand carefully.”

Make use of opportunity

Securing additional water resources, such as through the development of infrastructure like borehole drilling and water transfers, including desalination, is recommended to ensure a reliable water supply.

The weather office further said that the forecast for normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country could positively impact agriculture by boosting crop yields, improving grazing conditions and replenishing water resources.

Both livestock and crop farmers are encouraged to prepare for a potentially favourable rainfall season.

“Specifically, crop farmers should take advantage of the rainfall during the first months of the season and optimally cultivate their crop fields.”

Furthermore, it said crop farmers should utilise various seed varieties at their disposal to maximise the benefits of the expected rainfall.

Livestock farmers, on the other hand, may also consider restocking their herds, as the improved rainfall is likely to lead to better grazing conditions.

Be aware of the risks

However, the weather office said it also poses risks such as flooding, water logging, increased crop pests, and livestock diseases.

However, in the northwestern regions of the country, farmers should prepare for the possibility of drought.

It outlined anticipated impacts, saying that widespread and localised flooding is expected in low-lying areas, river basins and urban centres with inadequate drainage systems.

Potential areas that could be affected are the Zambezi, Kavango East and Kavango West, Oshana, Ohangwena, Omusati and Oshikoto regions.