We are apolitical - Afrobarometer
Critics have knives out for continental research body
The research body has defended the legitimacy of its surveys by calling on the public to first understand the methodology used to collect data before reaching incorrect conclusions.
Continental research outfit Afrobarometer says there is no truth in claims that it is meddling in the political affairs of Namibia, saying those opposing its public attitude surveys on socio-economic issues often do so when the results are not in their favour.
Afrobarometer is a research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions and related issues in more than 35 countries in Africa.
A recent Afrobarometer survey, which media reports claimed predicted the outcome of the November presidential and National Assembly elections, has faced criticism and the legitimacy of the survey was subsequently questioned.
'Inaccurate' reports
Media reports indicated that the survey suggested that Swapo’s presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will win the November polls with 50.8% of the votes, while Landless People’s Movement leader, Bernadus Swartbooi, is projected to take second place with 5.6% of the votes.
Critics accused the Afrobarometer survey organisation of being pro-Swapo and perpetuating propaganda aimed at influencing the country’s electoral processes by tilting it in favour of the ruling party.
Survey Warehouse’s managing director, Christiaan Keulder, the national investigative body for Afrobarometer in Namibia, denied that the research body promotes a specific agenda.
Keulder said: “It is important to clarify that the Afrobarometer Round 10 survey is not an 'election opinion poll', as inaccurately stated in some media reports. Afrobarometer surveys focus on democracy, governance and policy across Africa. The collected data aim to provide insights into citizens' views on these critical issues, not to predict electoral outcomes.”
He added: “Why would anyone think we have a political agenda? The reason we have these perceptions is two-fold. Firstly, the data can be misconstrued based on the way the media reports on it. Secondly, some of these sources themselves are political figures, so when they deal with data that is critical of their work, they resort to discrediting the results,” Keulder said.
Quotes in local media
Keulder’s remarks came after retired diplomat Pius Dunaiski reportedly dismissed the survey results, calling for an investigation into the poll agency’s and alleging collaboration with an American university.
“Afrobarometer, as an African poll agency, lost all its legitimacy altogether. To predict that the Nudo President is in close range to Itula robbed them of all their credibility. An investigation of the poll agency working with an American university is now most needed. We should demand the personalities involved in the poll and their links to Swapo. Their survey is clearly deeply flawed and ridiculous. The whole thing stinks of sheer propaganda,” Dunaiski was quoted saying in a recent newspaper article.
Public opinion
Keulder said critics, and at times the media, do not familiarise themselves with the methodology used to collect the data, which leads to misinterpretation of the data and misleading conclusions.
He said: “We are also concerned about reports that have presented survey data without including vital details on the sampling strategy and margin of error.”
He added: "For example, with a sampling margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, the reported support for various opposition political parties should be seen as statistically indistinguishable. Omitting this context leads to misleading conclusions, such as the erroneous claim that one party will overtake another as the official opposition based solely on our survey results."
Survey Warehouse interviewed a nationally representative, random, stratified probability sample of 1 200 adult citizens between 14 March and 2 April 2024. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of /-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, he explained.
Afrobarometer has been conducting surveys since 1999, with 10 rounds completed in Namibia as of March. Each round builds on the previous ones, offering valuable data that track changes in public opinion over time.
Afrobarometer is a research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions and related issues in more than 35 countries in Africa.
A recent Afrobarometer survey, which media reports claimed predicted the outcome of the November presidential and National Assembly elections, has faced criticism and the legitimacy of the survey was subsequently questioned.
'Inaccurate' reports
Media reports indicated that the survey suggested that Swapo’s presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will win the November polls with 50.8% of the votes, while Landless People’s Movement leader, Bernadus Swartbooi, is projected to take second place with 5.6% of the votes.
Critics accused the Afrobarometer survey organisation of being pro-Swapo and perpetuating propaganda aimed at influencing the country’s electoral processes by tilting it in favour of the ruling party.
Survey Warehouse’s managing director, Christiaan Keulder, the national investigative body for Afrobarometer in Namibia, denied that the research body promotes a specific agenda.
Keulder said: “It is important to clarify that the Afrobarometer Round 10 survey is not an 'election opinion poll', as inaccurately stated in some media reports. Afrobarometer surveys focus on democracy, governance and policy across Africa. The collected data aim to provide insights into citizens' views on these critical issues, not to predict electoral outcomes.”
He added: “Why would anyone think we have a political agenda? The reason we have these perceptions is two-fold. Firstly, the data can be misconstrued based on the way the media reports on it. Secondly, some of these sources themselves are political figures, so when they deal with data that is critical of their work, they resort to discrediting the results,” Keulder said.
Quotes in local media
Keulder’s remarks came after retired diplomat Pius Dunaiski reportedly dismissed the survey results, calling for an investigation into the poll agency’s and alleging collaboration with an American university.
“Afrobarometer, as an African poll agency, lost all its legitimacy altogether. To predict that the Nudo President is in close range to Itula robbed them of all their credibility. An investigation of the poll agency working with an American university is now most needed. We should demand the personalities involved in the poll and their links to Swapo. Their survey is clearly deeply flawed and ridiculous. The whole thing stinks of sheer propaganda,” Dunaiski was quoted saying in a recent newspaper article.
Public opinion
Keulder said critics, and at times the media, do not familiarise themselves with the methodology used to collect the data, which leads to misinterpretation of the data and misleading conclusions.
He said: “We are also concerned about reports that have presented survey data without including vital details on the sampling strategy and margin of error.”
He added: "For example, with a sampling margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, the reported support for various opposition political parties should be seen as statistically indistinguishable. Omitting this context leads to misleading conclusions, such as the erroneous claim that one party will overtake another as the official opposition based solely on our survey results."
Survey Warehouse interviewed a nationally representative, random, stratified probability sample of 1 200 adult citizens between 14 March and 2 April 2024. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of /-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, he explained.
Afrobarometer has been conducting surveys since 1999, with 10 rounds completed in Namibia as of March. Each round builds on the previous ones, offering valuable data that track changes in public opinion over time.
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