Liberation politics ‘no longer factor in election’
Economic conditions have taken over as a key factor in deciding Namibian election results , as observed since 2009, toppling liberation politics that previously served as a key catalyst in this regard, a local economist said.
Between 2009 and 2014, the support for the ruling party Swapo and its presidential candidate Hifikepunye Pohamba hit an all-time high, congruent with the strongest sustained economic growth Namibia had ever seen, Rowland Brown said.
“From strong economic growth from 2011 to 2015, growth went off a cliff in 2015 due to a raft of bad local policy, adverse commodity price movements, reduced Angolan trade and more.”
Brown added that the growth going ‘off a cliff' in 2015 influenced election results, when Swapo’s support fell below the two-thirds threshold in the National Assembly – falling from 82% in 2014 to 65% in 2019. The party’s candidate, the late Hage Geingob, saw his support fall from 87% in 2014 to 56% in the following election.
Not surprising
According to Brown, it is misplaced to pin the 2019 election result on the Fishrot bribery scandal, which saw two ministers and their business cronies being arrested just before Namibians went to the polls.
“While many ascribe this change to Fishrot, the reality is that both the 2014 and 2019 results are largely explained by economic conditions and the improvement or deterioration in people’s lives over these respective periods. The public was clearly voting, more than ever, on economic conditions, not liberation credentials,” he said.
“This is not surprising given that more and more voters do not recall the pre-independence period and did not experience the step change improvement that independence and majority rule delivered in the same way that their parents and grandparents did. Even then, it is worth recalling that in 1989, Swapo received just 57% of the vote.”
Political consequences
Brown, a co-founder of financial services company Cirrus Capital, said young, urbanised voters are now, by far, the most influential potential voting bloc in the country. “By our calculations, well over 60% of the eligible voters in this year’s election are born-frees, [which is the] youth with no clear memory of the pre-independence period. It is now the young people of Namibia who will decide the electoral outcomes - if they pitch up,” he said.
“Despite the reticence of young voters, a very clear message was delivered in 2019 – poor economic performance, resulting in deterioration in human conditions, has political consequences. Add to this corruption exposes, and the public will take action. This message, and indeed this feedback mechanism, is fundamental to democracy and accountability,” the economist added.
“In democracies worldwide, when the status quo isn’t working for the public, they vote to send a message to policy-makers that they want change.”
Brown believes Namibian elections are free and fair, and thus the outcome is not preordained. “The outcome depends on the decisions of the public, which starts with the decision to register. The outcome of the elections, and the future of the lives of Namibians, the management of oil discoveries and much more, depend on the decisions taken by the voters. Of course, none of this is to say how people should vote, but rather that they should vote,” he stressed.
Between 2009 and 2014, the support for the ruling party Swapo and its presidential candidate Hifikepunye Pohamba hit an all-time high, congruent with the strongest sustained economic growth Namibia had ever seen, Rowland Brown said.
“From strong economic growth from 2011 to 2015, growth went off a cliff in 2015 due to a raft of bad local policy, adverse commodity price movements, reduced Angolan trade and more.”
Brown added that the growth going ‘off a cliff' in 2015 influenced election results, when Swapo’s support fell below the two-thirds threshold in the National Assembly – falling from 82% in 2014 to 65% in 2019. The party’s candidate, the late Hage Geingob, saw his support fall from 87% in 2014 to 56% in the following election.
Not surprising
According to Brown, it is misplaced to pin the 2019 election result on the Fishrot bribery scandal, which saw two ministers and their business cronies being arrested just before Namibians went to the polls.
“While many ascribe this change to Fishrot, the reality is that both the 2014 and 2019 results are largely explained by economic conditions and the improvement or deterioration in people’s lives over these respective periods. The public was clearly voting, more than ever, on economic conditions, not liberation credentials,” he said.
“This is not surprising given that more and more voters do not recall the pre-independence period and did not experience the step change improvement that independence and majority rule delivered in the same way that their parents and grandparents did. Even then, it is worth recalling that in 1989, Swapo received just 57% of the vote.”
Political consequences
Brown, a co-founder of financial services company Cirrus Capital, said young, urbanised voters are now, by far, the most influential potential voting bloc in the country. “By our calculations, well over 60% of the eligible voters in this year’s election are born-frees, [which is the] youth with no clear memory of the pre-independence period. It is now the young people of Namibia who will decide the electoral outcomes - if they pitch up,” he said.
“Despite the reticence of young voters, a very clear message was delivered in 2019 – poor economic performance, resulting in deterioration in human conditions, has political consequences. Add to this corruption exposes, and the public will take action. This message, and indeed this feedback mechanism, is fundamental to democracy and accountability,” the economist added.
“In democracies worldwide, when the status quo isn’t working for the public, they vote to send a message to policy-makers that they want change.”
Brown believes Namibian elections are free and fair, and thus the outcome is not preordained. “The outcome depends on the decisions of the public, which starts with the decision to register. The outcome of the elections, and the future of the lives of Namibians, the management of oil discoveries and much more, depend on the decisions taken by the voters. Of course, none of this is to say how people should vote, but rather that they should vote,” he stressed.
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