Swapo will never lose the election
OPINION
In May, the ANC lost its majority in South Africa’s legislative elections and was forced to form a government of national unity with several other parties.
In October, the BDP of Botswana, which had been in office since independence from Britain in 1996, was trounced in general elections.
This led to many analysts predicting that what happened to the ANC and BDP might happen to Swapo on 27 November.
I disagree with them. It is a statistical reality that Swapo will not lose the election. Yes, the problems in South Africa and Botswana may be similar in Namibia, but those countries have their own unique patterns. In South Africa, the president is elected by the parliament, while in Namibia, the president is directly elected by the people. We do not have a party in Namibia founded the way the MK of Jacob Zuma was founded in South Africa.
In South Africa, they lived up to the words of their first democratically elected leader, president Nelson Mandela, who once said: "If the ANC does to you what the apartheid government did to you, then you must do to the ANC what you did to the apartheid."
Votes for Swapo
However, Namibians, whether poor or hungry, will still vote for Swapo.
Why? You might not know, with the O-Four regions plus two Kavango regions, those votes are enough to put Swapo back in power.
Just like it happened in the 1989 election, Swapo will never lose in the former Ovamboland to oposition parties. That will never happen.
Moreover, in Africa, the majority do not read party manifestos; they vote for someone they know and someone from their tribes and from their region.
Look here and imagine. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) was born in the Oshana Region.
She belongs to the Aakwanyama, the largest tribe in Namibia today.
She is married and based in the Ohangwena Region, the second most populated region.
What does this tell us?
Coming back to Swapo, there is no party that has more money, electoral support, experience and failure than Swapo.
That is why my role model, analyst Rui Tjitende, is right when he says the "opposition should learn to gorven".
There is a failure to unify around a single presidential candidate or even a party. This is a big bonus for the ruling party.
Yes, it is true.
Swapo lost its two-thirds majority in 2019, but it still formed its government as it pleased.
The late Dr Hage Geingob was re-elected only with 56% – down from 87% in 2014.
Dr Panduleni Itula (the new kid on the block at that time), an independent candidate, got 30% of the vote.
You can combine all votes for the opposition for 2019, but Swapo could still win the election.
Furthermore, in 2024 it will be different because Iitula is IPC.
There were many factors that influenced people to vote the way they voted in 2019.
But, just think of the Fshrot scandal – yet people still decided to put Swapo back in power while, at the time, Swapo was divided and weak.
What does this tell us?
The self-corrective measures taken at the 2022 Swapo ordinary congress are bearing fruit.
Do not get surprised if NNN gets more than 90% or more.
Many Namibians see her as the Messiah. This is a lady who joined youth politics at the age of 15 and became the First VP of Namibia. The only women to contest against 14 men for the highest office of the land.
In conclusion, let us use updated data to base what we are predicting: Khomas is the most populated region in Namibia, followed by Ohangwena.
The most populous towns in Namibia are Windhoek, Rundu, Walvis Bay, Swakopmund and Oshakati.
But the fundamental question is: Which regions and towns have more registered voters? Those regions and towns will determine who is going to rule Namibia over the next few years.
The recent election results tell us who is going to win. Mark my world.
#NamibiaDecides2024
In October, the BDP of Botswana, which had been in office since independence from Britain in 1996, was trounced in general elections.
This led to many analysts predicting that what happened to the ANC and BDP might happen to Swapo on 27 November.
I disagree with them. It is a statistical reality that Swapo will not lose the election. Yes, the problems in South Africa and Botswana may be similar in Namibia, but those countries have their own unique patterns. In South Africa, the president is elected by the parliament, while in Namibia, the president is directly elected by the people. We do not have a party in Namibia founded the way the MK of Jacob Zuma was founded in South Africa.
In South Africa, they lived up to the words of their first democratically elected leader, president Nelson Mandela, who once said: "If the ANC does to you what the apartheid government did to you, then you must do to the ANC what you did to the apartheid."
Votes for Swapo
However, Namibians, whether poor or hungry, will still vote for Swapo.
Why? You might not know, with the O-Four regions plus two Kavango regions, those votes are enough to put Swapo back in power.
Just like it happened in the 1989 election, Swapo will never lose in the former Ovamboland to oposition parties. That will never happen.
Moreover, in Africa, the majority do not read party manifestos; they vote for someone they know and someone from their tribes and from their region.
Look here and imagine. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) was born in the Oshana Region.
She belongs to the Aakwanyama, the largest tribe in Namibia today.
She is married and based in the Ohangwena Region, the second most populated region.
What does this tell us?
Coming back to Swapo, there is no party that has more money, electoral support, experience and failure than Swapo.
That is why my role model, analyst Rui Tjitende, is right when he says the "opposition should learn to gorven".
There is a failure to unify around a single presidential candidate or even a party. This is a big bonus for the ruling party.
Yes, it is true.
Swapo lost its two-thirds majority in 2019, but it still formed its government as it pleased.
The late Dr Hage Geingob was re-elected only with 56% – down from 87% in 2014.
Dr Panduleni Itula (the new kid on the block at that time), an independent candidate, got 30% of the vote.
You can combine all votes for the opposition for 2019, but Swapo could still win the election.
Furthermore, in 2024 it will be different because Iitula is IPC.
There were many factors that influenced people to vote the way they voted in 2019.
But, just think of the Fshrot scandal – yet people still decided to put Swapo back in power while, at the time, Swapo was divided and weak.
What does this tell us?
The self-corrective measures taken at the 2022 Swapo ordinary congress are bearing fruit.
Do not get surprised if NNN gets more than 90% or more.
Many Namibians see her as the Messiah. This is a lady who joined youth politics at the age of 15 and became the First VP of Namibia. The only women to contest against 14 men for the highest office of the land.
In conclusion, let us use updated data to base what we are predicting: Khomas is the most populated region in Namibia, followed by Ohangwena.
The most populous towns in Namibia are Windhoek, Rundu, Walvis Bay, Swakopmund and Oshakati.
But the fundamental question is: Which regions and towns have more registered voters? Those regions and towns will determine who is going to rule Namibia over the next few years.
The recent election results tell us who is going to win. Mark my world.
#NamibiaDecides2024
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