Future droughts will be devastating
If predictions hold, Namibia is to experience far more droughts in the next 80-odd years.
Alarming predictions indicate that Namibia will experience more frequent droughts in the future, affecting nearly 80% of the population and 76% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
This is according to Namibia's disaster risk profile, which was discussed by industry experts at a Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Country Level Workshop this week.
The report says the probability of severely low rainfall in Namibia will increase by 15% from 2050 to 2100.
“It is likely that a larger share of Namibia will experience frequent droughts.”
It further indicates that currently about 31% of the population is potentially affected by droughts. In the future, this number is likely to increase to 77%.
According to the report the percentage of GDP potentially affected (produced in areas hit by droughts) is on average about 33%.
Under future climate and socio-economic conditions, it is likely that 76% of the GDP will be affected.
Most of the affected livestock are in the central northern part of the country. Under future climate conditions, about 35% more livestock will be affected by droughts.
At the moment about 39% of the country's livestock are affected by drought, whereas in the future the projection is likely to increase to 75%.
According to the report agricultural losses will be dominated by root and tuber crops. It says all crop production will be strongly affected under future conditions. Average production losses of 10% are projected, with the exception of grapes, which will show an 18% loss. Maize production can expect losses of more than 9%, pearl millet about 11% and fruit more than 10%.
Crop production is concentrated in the northern regions of Namibia, which will be hard hit by climate change in the future.
Annual losses in hydropower are expected to increase considerably, from 9% to 54%. This is linked to more frequent low flow conditions in the Kunene River. Losses are based on estimates for the Ruacana hydropower station.
UN resident coordinator Rachel Odede said Namibia is no stranger to disasters and is vulnerable to drought, flash flooding, veld fires and disease outbreaks. According to her 97% of the country's rainfall is lost through evaporation.
She said over the years, Namibia had developed an impressive disaster risk management (DRM) legislative and policy framework and put in place a solid DRM institutional structure.
“Despite these achievements, Namibia recognised that there is still work to be done.”
The workshop, aimed at building resilience in disaster management, is a joint venture between the disaster risk management directorate that falls under the Office of the Prime Minister, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), and the CIMA Research Foundation for Africa. CIMA is a non-profit research organisation committed to the promotion and support of scientific research and technological development.
Namibia hopes to produce a disaster risk management profile within this financial year.
The lack of a risk management profile was one of the gaps identified by the capacity assessment for disaster risk management in Namibia, conducted with the support of the UN country office back in 2016.
ELLANIE SMIT
This is according to Namibia's disaster risk profile, which was discussed by industry experts at a Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Country Level Workshop this week.
The report says the probability of severely low rainfall in Namibia will increase by 15% from 2050 to 2100.
“It is likely that a larger share of Namibia will experience frequent droughts.”
It further indicates that currently about 31% of the population is potentially affected by droughts. In the future, this number is likely to increase to 77%.
According to the report the percentage of GDP potentially affected (produced in areas hit by droughts) is on average about 33%.
Under future climate and socio-economic conditions, it is likely that 76% of the GDP will be affected.
Most of the affected livestock are in the central northern part of the country. Under future climate conditions, about 35% more livestock will be affected by droughts.
At the moment about 39% of the country's livestock are affected by drought, whereas in the future the projection is likely to increase to 75%.
According to the report agricultural losses will be dominated by root and tuber crops. It says all crop production will be strongly affected under future conditions. Average production losses of 10% are projected, with the exception of grapes, which will show an 18% loss. Maize production can expect losses of more than 9%, pearl millet about 11% and fruit more than 10%.
Crop production is concentrated in the northern regions of Namibia, which will be hard hit by climate change in the future.
Annual losses in hydropower are expected to increase considerably, from 9% to 54%. This is linked to more frequent low flow conditions in the Kunene River. Losses are based on estimates for the Ruacana hydropower station.
UN resident coordinator Rachel Odede said Namibia is no stranger to disasters and is vulnerable to drought, flash flooding, veld fires and disease outbreaks. According to her 97% of the country's rainfall is lost through evaporation.
She said over the years, Namibia had developed an impressive disaster risk management (DRM) legislative and policy framework and put in place a solid DRM institutional structure.
“Despite these achievements, Namibia recognised that there is still work to be done.”
The workshop, aimed at building resilience in disaster management, is a joint venture between the disaster risk management directorate that falls under the Office of the Prime Minister, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), and the CIMA Research Foundation for Africa. CIMA is a non-profit research organisation committed to the promotion and support of scientific research and technological development.
Namibia hopes to produce a disaster risk management profile within this financial year.
The lack of a risk management profile was one of the gaps identified by the capacity assessment for disaster risk management in Namibia, conducted with the support of the UN country office back in 2016.
ELLANIE SMIT
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