Chances for El Nino grow
Current predictions are that average to below average rainfall will be received in the sub-region, with many areas entering the season water-stressed.
The probability of an El Niño event has increased to between 75% and 84% during the coming rainfall season.
El Niño is typically associated with below average rainfall and above average temperatures in the southern half of the region, while northern hemisphere usually receives above average rainfall. However, local and regional climate drivers can sometimes change this typical outcome, which deviations are captured in seasonal forecasts.
This is worrying as most parts of southern Africa, including Namibia, are experiencing a slow start to the rainfall season, with below average early rainfall received early in the season.
Short term forecasts suggest that the slow onset of rains will continue until at least late November, potentially delaying planting of summer season crops in several areas
Seasonal forecasts suggest high chances for normal to below normal rains in many areas this year, with implications for crop production.
According to the Food Security Early Warning System Agromet Update, the region received below average rainfall between September and early November, with the negative anomalies being most pronounced in central Angola, Lesotho, central and eastern Madagascar, central Mozambique, eastern South Africa, and central Zimbabwe as well as Namibia.
In most areas, early seasonal rains received in October and early November typically facilitate agricultural land preparation and planting.
The report however points out that due to the below average early-season rains experienced this year, it is likely to delay land preparation and planting in some areas, and in regions where farmers have already planted, cause early season moisture stress for crops.
“Despite the low rains received in most areas, the situation is not yet a serious cause for concern, as planting rains are generally received in November, particularly in most southern and central parts of the region,” says the report.
The report warns that extensive delays of the onset of rain can compromise the season quality, resulting in crops failing to reach maturity before the growing season ends, either due to the cessation of rains, or due to the onset of cold conditions that are not conducive to the growth of cereal crops.
Furthermore the below average rainfall received in many parts of the region in the last few weeks has resulted in a slow re-greening of vegetation, including pastures, in many areas in the southern half of the region.
In several areas in the southern half of the region, vegetation was below average at the end of October and will require close monitoring, especially those areas where livestock is an important source of food and livelihoods.
These areas include parts of Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa.
Close monitoring of pasture conditions throughout the season will be important in light of the forecast for normal to below normal rainfall.
The SADC seasonal rainfall forecast released at the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in August predicted that most parts of the region are likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall between October 2018 and March 2019.
Rainfall to date, combined with short-term forecasts, suggests that many areas are unlikely to receive planting rains until at least late November, potentially delaying planting.
Meanwhile according to the latest dam bulletin of Namibia’s dam the total capacity of the country’s dams now stand at only 36.6%. In comparison to the same time last year the dams were 45.7% full.
ELLANIE SMIT
El Niño is typically associated with below average rainfall and above average temperatures in the southern half of the region, while northern hemisphere usually receives above average rainfall. However, local and regional climate drivers can sometimes change this typical outcome, which deviations are captured in seasonal forecasts.
This is worrying as most parts of southern Africa, including Namibia, are experiencing a slow start to the rainfall season, with below average early rainfall received early in the season.
Short term forecasts suggest that the slow onset of rains will continue until at least late November, potentially delaying planting of summer season crops in several areas
Seasonal forecasts suggest high chances for normal to below normal rains in many areas this year, with implications for crop production.
According to the Food Security Early Warning System Agromet Update, the region received below average rainfall between September and early November, with the negative anomalies being most pronounced in central Angola, Lesotho, central and eastern Madagascar, central Mozambique, eastern South Africa, and central Zimbabwe as well as Namibia.
In most areas, early seasonal rains received in October and early November typically facilitate agricultural land preparation and planting.
The report however points out that due to the below average early-season rains experienced this year, it is likely to delay land preparation and planting in some areas, and in regions where farmers have already planted, cause early season moisture stress for crops.
“Despite the low rains received in most areas, the situation is not yet a serious cause for concern, as planting rains are generally received in November, particularly in most southern and central parts of the region,” says the report.
The report warns that extensive delays of the onset of rain can compromise the season quality, resulting in crops failing to reach maturity before the growing season ends, either due to the cessation of rains, or due to the onset of cold conditions that are not conducive to the growth of cereal crops.
Furthermore the below average rainfall received in many parts of the region in the last few weeks has resulted in a slow re-greening of vegetation, including pastures, in many areas in the southern half of the region.
In several areas in the southern half of the region, vegetation was below average at the end of October and will require close monitoring, especially those areas where livestock is an important source of food and livelihoods.
These areas include parts of Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa.
Close monitoring of pasture conditions throughout the season will be important in light of the forecast for normal to below normal rainfall.
The SADC seasonal rainfall forecast released at the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in August predicted that most parts of the region are likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall between October 2018 and March 2019.
Rainfall to date, combined with short-term forecasts, suggests that many areas are unlikely to receive planting rains until at least late November, potentially delaying planting.
Meanwhile according to the latest dam bulletin of Namibia’s dam the total capacity of the country’s dams now stand at only 36.6%. In comparison to the same time last year the dams were 45.7% full.
ELLANIE SMIT
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