Swapo won’t make 50+1 – Tötemeyer

Jemima BeukesWINDHOEK

Former Swapo member of parliament and deputy minister Professor Gerhard Tötemeyer predicts the ruling party is likely to get the most votes in the 2024 general election, but not enough to be declared the winner.Instead, the next election may give birth to a coalition government which is likely to cause conflict in governance, he said.

Tötemeyer argued that although the party remains the biggest political establishment in the country, its support is certainly wavering.

“Considering the present Swapo presidential nomination list and the present political climate, my prediction is that should there be a general and presidency election today, Swapo would still be the strongest political party, but its support would be below 50%,” he said.

His remarks come amid much confusion in the ruling party, with incumbent president Hage Geingob having broken the long-standing tradition of endorsing his successor, and instead opening the floor to everyone under the guise of ‘free and fair’ opportunity.

Party veterans are still divided by Geingob’s decision and many believe he has left incumbent vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah out in the cold to make way for his candidate of choice, Frans Kapofi.

However, Kapofi threw the party and its leadership an unexpected curveball when he announced his withdrawal from the vice-president race.

This leaves only Nandi-Ndaitwah, Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila and Pohamba Shifeta in the run for the vice-presidency.

Two arrangements

The two candidates with the strongest support during the first round of elections will have to battle it out in a second round, and are not likely to secure strong support nationally, Tötemeyer said.

“Two possible arrangements among the parties could then be: Either Swapo manages to get the support of a candidate and his or her party which did not make it during the first round of presidential elections, or all the opposition parties combine their efforts and agree to one candidate.

“In the latter case, the outcome would be that an opposition candidate elects a president by majority vote while Swapo is still the strongest party in the National Assembly and may have formed a coalition government.”

Swapo brand ‘damaged’

Political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah echoed Tötemeyer’s sentiments, saying Swapo is still the party to beat, but the margin of its victory will be reduced more than ever before.

“The Swapo brand is damaged, probably not beyond repair, to the extent that the party largely is operating on defensive mode instead of offensive.

“There are just too many distractions surrounding the party from all angles... the Helmut Amendments controversy, Fishrot, the central committee nomination process, Geingob’s non-committal endorsement of the vice-president, lack of service delivery, the youth factor, unemployment, poverty - which are all being blamed on the party,” he said.

We’ve got plans

Meanwhile, candidate for Swapo secretary-general position, which is also known as the engine of the party, Armas Amukwiyu, said there will be a lot on the incoming secretary-general’s plate, and he is bringing clear ideas and activities to the table.

He said he will realign programmes in the interests of the party that speak to the current socio-economic situation of its electorate.

“First and foremost, unity and common purpose are prerequisites within the annals of the party and I will ensure to promote a common sense of unity and comradeship and to unite the people.

“We will bring the people together and the structures are very clear on how to do this – we shall do it according to the book,” he said.

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