Germany decides to leave history in the past and prepare for war
Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, recently got the all-clear for a massive increase in investment after parliament voted to exempt defence spending from strict rules on debt.
The country's top general has told the BBC the cash boost is urgently needed because he believes Russian aggression won't stop at Ukraine.
"We are threatened by Russia. We are threatened by Putin. We have to do whatever is needed to deter that," Gen Carsten Breuer says. He warns that Nato should be braced for a possible attack in as little as four years.
"It's not about how much time I need, it's much more about how much time Putin gives us to be prepared," the defence chief says bluntly. "And the sooner we are prepared the better."
The pivot
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has changed thinking in Germany profoundly.
For decades people here have been raised on a rejection of military might, acutely aware of Germany's past role as the aggressor in Europe.
"We started two world wars. Even though it's 80 years since World War Two ended, the idea that Germans should stay out of conflict is still very much in many people's DNA," explains Markus Ziener of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
Some remain wary of anything that might be seen as militarism even now, and the armed forces have been chronically underfunded.
"There are voices cautioning: 'Are we really on the right track? Is our threat perception right?'"
When it comes to Russia, Germany has had a specific approach.
Whilst countries like Poland and the Baltic States cautioned against getting too close to Moscow – and increased their own defence spending – Berlin under former Chancellor Angela Merkel believed in doing business.
Germany imagined it was delivering democratisation by osmosis. But Russia took the cash and invaded Ukraine anyway.
So in February 2022 a stunned Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a national pivot in priorities, a "Zeitenwende".
That's when he committed a giant €100 billion to boost the country's military and keep "warmongers like Putin" in check. But General Breuer says it wasn't enough.
"We filled up a little bit the potholes," he recounts. "But it's really bad."
By contrast, he points to heavy spending in Russia on weapons and equipment, for stocks as well as the frontline in Ukraine.
He also highlights Russia's hybrid warfare: from cyberattacks to sabotage, as well as unidentified drones over German military sites.
Add to that Vladimir Putin's aggressive rhetoric and General Breuer sees "a really dangerous mixture."
"Unlike the western world, Russia is not thinking in boxes. It's not about peacetime and war, it's a continuum: let's start with hybrid, then escalate, then back. This is what makes me think we are facing a real threat."
He argues Germany has to act fast.
'Too little of everything'
The defence chief's stark assessment of his forces' current state chimes with a recent report to parliament. The Bundeswehr, it concluded, had "too little of everything".
The report's author, armed forces commissioner Eva Högl, revealed dire shortages ranging from ammunition to soldiers, right down to dilapidated barracks. She estimated the budget for renovation work alone at around €67 billion.
Lifting the debt cap, allowing the military to borrow – in theory, without limit – will give it access to a "steady line" of funding to start to address that, General Breuer says.
The historic move was made by Scholz's expected successor, Friedrich Merz, in a rush that raised some eyebrows. He submitted the proposal to parliament just before it was disbanded following the February elections.
The new parliament, with an anti-militarist left and Russia-sympathising far right, might have been less favourably disposed.
Change
But the "turn" that Germany started in 2022 gained fresh momentum this year.
A recent YouGov poll showed that 79% of Germans still see Vladimir Putin as "very" or "quite" dangerous to European peace and security.
Now 74% said the same for Donald Trump.
The survey followed a speech in Munich in which his Vice President JD Vance laid into Europe and its values.
"That was a clear signal that something fundamentally has changed in the United States," says Markus Ziener.
"We don't know where the US is heading but we know the belief that we can 100% rely on American protection when it comes to our security – that trust has now gone."
General Breuer is clearly positioning himself at the front of an effort to push Germany's "turn" further and faster.
With his easy, engaging manner, he likes to visit regional town halls and challenge audiences there with a question: "Are you ready for war?"
One day a woman accused him of scaring her. "I said, 'It's not me scaring you, it's the other guy!'" he remembers his reply.
He was referring to Vladimir Putin.
The twin "wake-up" alarm – of the Russia threat and an isolationist, disengaged United States – is now ringing loudly for Germany, the general argues, and can't be ignored.
"Now it's understandable to each and every one of us that we have to change."
The country's top general has told the BBC the cash boost is urgently needed because he believes Russian aggression won't stop at Ukraine.
"We are threatened by Russia. We are threatened by Putin. We have to do whatever is needed to deter that," Gen Carsten Breuer says. He warns that Nato should be braced for a possible attack in as little as four years.
"It's not about how much time I need, it's much more about how much time Putin gives us to be prepared," the defence chief says bluntly. "And the sooner we are prepared the better."
The pivot
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has changed thinking in Germany profoundly.
For decades people here have been raised on a rejection of military might, acutely aware of Germany's past role as the aggressor in Europe.
"We started two world wars. Even though it's 80 years since World War Two ended, the idea that Germans should stay out of conflict is still very much in many people's DNA," explains Markus Ziener of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
Some remain wary of anything that might be seen as militarism even now, and the armed forces have been chronically underfunded.
"There are voices cautioning: 'Are we really on the right track? Is our threat perception right?'"
When it comes to Russia, Germany has had a specific approach.
Whilst countries like Poland and the Baltic States cautioned against getting too close to Moscow – and increased their own defence spending – Berlin under former Chancellor Angela Merkel believed in doing business.
Germany imagined it was delivering democratisation by osmosis. But Russia took the cash and invaded Ukraine anyway.
So in February 2022 a stunned Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a national pivot in priorities, a "Zeitenwende".
That's when he committed a giant €100 billion to boost the country's military and keep "warmongers like Putin" in check. But General Breuer says it wasn't enough.
"We filled up a little bit the potholes," he recounts. "But it's really bad."
By contrast, he points to heavy spending in Russia on weapons and equipment, for stocks as well as the frontline in Ukraine.
He also highlights Russia's hybrid warfare: from cyberattacks to sabotage, as well as unidentified drones over German military sites.
Add to that Vladimir Putin's aggressive rhetoric and General Breuer sees "a really dangerous mixture."
"Unlike the western world, Russia is not thinking in boxes. It's not about peacetime and war, it's a continuum: let's start with hybrid, then escalate, then back. This is what makes me think we are facing a real threat."
He argues Germany has to act fast.
'Too little of everything'
The defence chief's stark assessment of his forces' current state chimes with a recent report to parliament. The Bundeswehr, it concluded, had "too little of everything".
The report's author, armed forces commissioner Eva Högl, revealed dire shortages ranging from ammunition to soldiers, right down to dilapidated barracks. She estimated the budget for renovation work alone at around €67 billion.
Lifting the debt cap, allowing the military to borrow – in theory, without limit – will give it access to a "steady line" of funding to start to address that, General Breuer says.
The historic move was made by Scholz's expected successor, Friedrich Merz, in a rush that raised some eyebrows. He submitted the proposal to parliament just before it was disbanded following the February elections.
The new parliament, with an anti-militarist left and Russia-sympathising far right, might have been less favourably disposed.
Change
But the "turn" that Germany started in 2022 gained fresh momentum this year.
A recent YouGov poll showed that 79% of Germans still see Vladimir Putin as "very" or "quite" dangerous to European peace and security.
Now 74% said the same for Donald Trump.
The survey followed a speech in Munich in which his Vice President JD Vance laid into Europe and its values.
"That was a clear signal that something fundamentally has changed in the United States," says Markus Ziener.
"We don't know where the US is heading but we know the belief that we can 100% rely on American protection when it comes to our security – that trust has now gone."
General Breuer is clearly positioning himself at the front of an effort to push Germany's "turn" further and faster.
With his easy, engaging manner, he likes to visit regional town halls and challenge audiences there with a question: "Are you ready for war?"
One day a woman accused him of scaring her. "I said, 'It's not me scaring you, it's the other guy!'" he remembers his reply.
He was referring to Vladimir Putin.
The twin "wake-up" alarm – of the Russia threat and an isolationist, disengaged United States – is now ringing loudly for Germany, the general argues, and can't be ignored.
"Now it's understandable to each and every one of us that we have to change."
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