ANC faces biggest test yet

As South Africans began to cast their votes yesterday in the country's seventh election, the African National Congress (ANC) was expected to barely scrape through, potentially securing less than 50% of the votes or winning with a bare minimum, in what is considered the most competitive election in the country’s history.

The Institute for Security Studies suggests that by 2029, the ANC could be relegated to the opposition. However, for now, it’s likely to dominate parliament as the largest party by a significant margin.

Adding to the mix is the possibility that the ruling ANC might be unseated by new contender uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), backed by former ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma.

Public mood

Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah described the election as highly competitive, with various parties campaigning heavily.

"The public mood towards the ANC is certainly negative, but how that translates into votes is uncertain. We will still see the ANC win, but with a reduced vote," Kamwanyah said.

He emphasised the importance of the ANC's understanding that their time in power is not indefinite, drawing lessons from their shift away from the core values that once defined them as a liberation movement.

The ANC, once a champion for human rights and equal opportunities, has for the last 30 years reigned over an increasingly frustrated South Africa, the most unequal country in the world, where load shedding, poverty and unemployment have become the order of the day.

The party has been plagued by corruption scandals and its inability to dismantle the entrenched economic disparities inherited from apartheid. As the nation headed to the polls, fresh in their minds would be the Phala Phala scandal, in which millions of undeclared dollars belonging to President Cyril Ramaphosa were stolen, raising concerns that the president has committed serious violations and breached anti-corruption laws.

Namibia, Kamwanyah noted, should learn from South Africa's campaign, which was notably tolerant. The truest test, however, will be in the post-election outcomes. "Whatever happens in these elections will undoubtedly influence our own," he added.

Bruising battle

Political analyst Marius Kudumo agreed that the ANC will come out bruised from these elections but believes that the ruling party is still poised to win.

"I predict the ANC winning, but with a reduced vote. I think the Democratic Alliance (DA) will still remain the opposition, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will also have some votes, but I don’t see the opposition unseating the ANC this time," he said.

"The opposition votes will be fragmented. I will not be surprised if the ANC results are below 50%, but also not surprised if it is just over 50%. We cannot always underestimate the intelligence of voters when it comes to Zuma. Except the Zulu nationalism, he will not get much because people will vote because there is an expectation that their material conditions would change and and that has not changed under the Zuma leadership except for the middle class and elite," he added.

"The DA constituency is not that disrupted, they have not changed. The liberal English and Afrikaner and Coloured community will still vote for the DA, and the disgruntled ANC supporters might want to give them a chance," he noted.

Namibia’s minister for international relations, Peya Mushelenga, conveyed Namibia’s message to South Africa: "We wish our neighbours peaceful elections in accordance with their laws."

Mushelenga acknowledged that while disruptive incidents might occur, they do not reflect general trends for elections on the continent, noting that such cases are isolated, similar to other continents.

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