Rich will ‘benefit more’ from green hydrogen
Household income in Namibia will increase by N$99.4 billion over the green hydrogen investment period, but due to the structure of the Namibian economy, up to 58% of this is destined for the wealthiest urban households.
This is according to Mwala Lubinda, a researcher for Monasa Advisories, advisors for various projects related to green hydrogen in the country.
"Obviously, it will be your high-income households in urban and rural areas that will benefit," he said.
"This is the reality in Namibia – high income inequality," he added.
Lubinda said he hopes the insight provided by his analysis will lead to proactive policies to tackle these issues early on.
The poorest rural households can look forward to 1% of the national green hydrogen yield, he said, while the poorest urban families are expected to receive only 2% of the additional income.
In the years following the establishment of green hydrogen operations, after 2030, household income is expected to increase by N$87.9 billion annually. However, 59% of this increase will be enjoyed by the wealthiest urban households, according to the researcher.
The poorest rural households can then look forward to 2% of the additional income.
Sharing
However, Eline van der Linden, representing Namibia’s green hydrogen programme, believes the benefit will spread further because members of households will share the income with each other.
"In Namibia we share. The government will also be able to use its expected income and greater fiscal space to expand and strengthen the social safety net,” she said.
"Perhaps we will be able to consider an unemployment benefit or a (universal) basic income allowance."
According to Lubinda, investments of N$173 billion will be needed for green hydrogen-related infrastructure, as well as N$16 billion for railway development, N$6 billion to upgrade Namibia's ports and N$3.4 billion for the electricity sector.
The next six years will be the nascent industry's investment period, followed by an operational period when the related green hydrogen businesses are established.
By 2030, Lubinda expects that there will already be N$110 billion worth of value created by the new green hydrogen industry.
Meanwhile, the increase in necessary railway investment, at N$16 billion, will be at least 55% for construction costs.
"This is good news for engineers," he said.
To upgrade the ports, construction will require up to 72% of the necessary investment.
Employment opportunities
Over the total investment period of six years, Lubinda estimates that 102 000 jobs will be created. He expects a further 30 000 jobs per year during the subsequent operating period.
Only 1.5% of jobs in the green hydrogen industry will be available to workers without skills, according to his expectations.
Lubinda expects that up to 39.5% of green hydrogen jobs will be available for semi-skilled labour and almost 60% for skilled labour.
He further expects that green hydrogen will be directly responsible for 87% of the new jobs, with 8% in the railway sector, 3% at ports and 2% in the electricity industry.
Van der Linden agreed, saying Namibians must guard against unrealistic expectations.
"In Namibia, unemployment is structural and access to these jobs will not be immediately available for the unskilled and those who lack resources," she said.
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This is according to Mwala Lubinda, a researcher for Monasa Advisories, advisors for various projects related to green hydrogen in the country.
"Obviously, it will be your high-income households in urban and rural areas that will benefit," he said.
"This is the reality in Namibia – high income inequality," he added.
Lubinda said he hopes the insight provided by his analysis will lead to proactive policies to tackle these issues early on.
The poorest rural households can look forward to 1% of the national green hydrogen yield, he said, while the poorest urban families are expected to receive only 2% of the additional income.
In the years following the establishment of green hydrogen operations, after 2030, household income is expected to increase by N$87.9 billion annually. However, 59% of this increase will be enjoyed by the wealthiest urban households, according to the researcher.
The poorest rural households can then look forward to 2% of the additional income.
Sharing
However, Eline van der Linden, representing Namibia’s green hydrogen programme, believes the benefit will spread further because members of households will share the income with each other.
"In Namibia we share. The government will also be able to use its expected income and greater fiscal space to expand and strengthen the social safety net,” she said.
"Perhaps we will be able to consider an unemployment benefit or a (universal) basic income allowance."
According to Lubinda, investments of N$173 billion will be needed for green hydrogen-related infrastructure, as well as N$16 billion for railway development, N$6 billion to upgrade Namibia's ports and N$3.4 billion for the electricity sector.
The next six years will be the nascent industry's investment period, followed by an operational period when the related green hydrogen businesses are established.
By 2030, Lubinda expects that there will already be N$110 billion worth of value created by the new green hydrogen industry.
Meanwhile, the increase in necessary railway investment, at N$16 billion, will be at least 55% for construction costs.
"This is good news for engineers," he said.
To upgrade the ports, construction will require up to 72% of the necessary investment.
Employment opportunities
Over the total investment period of six years, Lubinda estimates that 102 000 jobs will be created. He expects a further 30 000 jobs per year during the subsequent operating period.
Only 1.5% of jobs in the green hydrogen industry will be available to workers without skills, according to his expectations.
Lubinda expects that up to 39.5% of green hydrogen jobs will be available for semi-skilled labour and almost 60% for skilled labour.
He further expects that green hydrogen will be directly responsible for 87% of the new jobs, with 8% in the railway sector, 3% at ports and 2% in the electricity industry.
Van der Linden agreed, saying Namibians must guard against unrealistic expectations.
"In Namibia, unemployment is structural and access to these jobs will not be immediately available for the unskilled and those who lack resources," she said.
– [email protected]
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