Fitch predicts Swapo win
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has forecasted that the ruling Swapo Party will achieve a reduced majority in the November 2024 legislative elections, with the presidential race expected to be a tight contest between Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah and Independent Patriot for Change’s (IPC's) Panduleni Itula.
“While our core view is that Swapo’s candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will narrowly win the presidential vote, we flag moderate risks to policy continuity as the presidency shifts from the previous incumbent, the late Hage Geingob,” stated BMI in its Namibian Country Risk Report dated 4 April.
“Should Panduleni Itula, the most popular opposition candidate, win the election, this would likely complicate policy-making in a Swapo-controlled parliament,” the macro intelligence solutions company said in its report.
The report noted that the presidential race is set to be more closely fought.
“It is unclear if Nandi-Ndaitwah enjoys similar levels of popularity [to that of late Hage Geingob]. As an insider and long-time Swapo veteran, she is unlikely to be viewed as an opportunity for change by disenchanted voters and, for this reason, we believe that she will struggle to achieve a much higher share of the vote than Geingob,” read the report.
It added: “That said, our core assumption is that she will narrowly win the presidential race. Her main contender will be Itula, who ran as an independent in the 2019 election, gaining 29.4% of the votes.”
Safe outlook
It further flagged moderate risks to policy continuity over the short term.
“While Nandi-Ndaitwah symbolises continuity within Swapo, she is considered more traditionalist and inward-oriented than her predecessor, which could point to a more state-centric and interventionist policy approach,” the report noted.
The report also took note of Nandi-Ndaitwah’s December 2023 meeting with Russia’s deputy prime minister Yury Trutnev to foster relations between the two countries.
It added: “A key test for Nandi-Ndaitwah will be to successfully continue Geingob’s efforts at securing critical investment into this high-potential sector as demand for clean energy increases in developed markets.”
A potential victory for Itula, states the report, would not lead to a radical change in policy, since the IPC advocates the rule of law, a free-market economy and the eradication of corruption.
“However, should Itula be elected president, the resulting ‘co-habitation’ would slow the policy-making process, as laws would still need to be approved by a Swapo-dominated parliament,” it noted.
“While our core view is that Swapo’s candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will narrowly win the presidential vote, we flag moderate risks to policy continuity as the presidency shifts from the previous incumbent, the late Hage Geingob,” stated BMI in its Namibian Country Risk Report dated 4 April.
“Should Panduleni Itula, the most popular opposition candidate, win the election, this would likely complicate policy-making in a Swapo-controlled parliament,” the macro intelligence solutions company said in its report.
The report noted that the presidential race is set to be more closely fought.
“It is unclear if Nandi-Ndaitwah enjoys similar levels of popularity [to that of late Hage Geingob]. As an insider and long-time Swapo veteran, she is unlikely to be viewed as an opportunity for change by disenchanted voters and, for this reason, we believe that she will struggle to achieve a much higher share of the vote than Geingob,” read the report.
It added: “That said, our core assumption is that she will narrowly win the presidential race. Her main contender will be Itula, who ran as an independent in the 2019 election, gaining 29.4% of the votes.”
Safe outlook
It further flagged moderate risks to policy continuity over the short term.
“While Nandi-Ndaitwah symbolises continuity within Swapo, she is considered more traditionalist and inward-oriented than her predecessor, which could point to a more state-centric and interventionist policy approach,” the report noted.
The report also took note of Nandi-Ndaitwah’s December 2023 meeting with Russia’s deputy prime minister Yury Trutnev to foster relations between the two countries.
It added: “A key test for Nandi-Ndaitwah will be to successfully continue Geingob’s efforts at securing critical investment into this high-potential sector as demand for clean energy increases in developed markets.”
A potential victory for Itula, states the report, would not lead to a radical change in policy, since the IPC advocates the rule of law, a free-market economy and the eradication of corruption.
“However, should Itula be elected president, the resulting ‘co-habitation’ would slow the policy-making process, as laws would still need to be approved by a Swapo-dominated parliament,” it noted.
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